A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
